Dr Gerhard Will  is a researcher at the Institute for International and Security Affairs, Germany

I admire Abhisit. He has a very difficult task to bridge all the deep-rooted divisions in Thai society and he has done a fairly good job.

I think the biggest problem in Thai politics, for more than ten years, is that the coalitions are not held together by common goals or interests, but by common enemies. Therefore, if you want to hold your camp together, you have to escalate a conflict (latest example: the border conflict with Cambodia). There is little room for compromise. But an economically developed, pluralistic society depends on the ability to make compromises, which is a very unattractive business.We know that from Europe very well.

During the first half of the 1990s until the Asian Crisis of 1997, Thailand was on the right track. The constitution of 1997 reflects this ability to balance the different forces in Thai society and Thai politics. Contrarily, Thaksin's politics and his success were built on exploiting the divisions of Thai society. Since that time, nearly all political camps in Thailand have played the same game: trying to win by polarising. Compromises are associated with 'money politics' and 'string-pulling behind the scenes', etc. Everybody did and does it, but everybody condemns it publicly. Abhisit tried his best to cultivate a new political culture of compromise. He spent a lot of money developing and supporting the Northeast, Thaksin's electoral base. Was he successful? Will he survive another term? Difficult to say: the opinion polls I’ve seen are head-to-head, but their quality is rather questionable.

Watching Thailand from outside, I’ve got the impression that a growing number of Thais are fed up with the bloody conflicts of these last years and the charisma of Thaksin and his parties is based on his status as a winner, but his parties lost the last battles. No longer does much money go from Thaksin's pockets to the pockets of the poor. Therefore, his electoral base is decreasing. Whether that will be enough for Abhisit remains to be seen, but three to four years ago there was no doubt Thaksin's parties would win every election. Now there is at least some uncertainty that this will be the case this time.